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Saturday, September 21, 2024

The sky was falling: Economists who warned of inflation last year turned out to be right

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As inflation rises, Pennsylvania businesses face an ongoing struggle to hire employees. | Hanson Lu/Unsplash

As inflation rises, Pennsylvania businesses face an ongoing struggle to hire employees. | Hanson Lu/Unsplash

American economist and professor Lawrence Summers was among those who warned that inflation loomed if the Biden administration wasn't careful with their monetary actions.

It turns out they were correct.

With a 7.5% increase in prices reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this month, the majority of Americans across the country – specifically in the state of Pennsylvania – disapprove of the Biden administration's handling of the economy and the continuing pandemic.  However, economists believe there isn't much that President Biden can do to get the country out of its economic rut.

"I’m not sure that we would have the inflation if there had never been a pandemic and, even if there had been a pandemic, without the overwhelming stimulus that was applied well into recovery – during 2021,"  Summers said on Twitter Feb. 4.

Civiqs, an online polling company, surveyed registered voters in every U.S. state to gauge their approval rating of President Biden. As of Feb. 12, 57% of Pennsylvania voters disapproved of Biden’s job performance, while only 36% approved. When asked the same question a year ago, 45% disapproved and 47% approved.

In February 2021, an opinion piece published by Summers in The Washington Post outlined the major economic risks associated with Biden’s ambitious macroeconomic stimulus measures, namely an inflationary spiral.

The New York Times reported that Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-New York) said inflation was an economic concern that deserved awareness. In early 2021, she reportedly began to notice rising prices at the grocery store for things like fruit, milk, and eggs, along with baby products such as diapers.

The latest national CNN poll revealed that nearly 6 in 10 Americans are unhappy with the performance of the Biden administration, amidst widespread inflation and increased coronavirus cases. The poll found that 58% of Americans disapproved of Biden’s job performance, while just 41% approved.

In a Washington Post article in early 2021, Summers warned of the sharp rise in inflation that would occur, given the financial commitments of the Federal Reserve and the Biden administration’s dismissal of the possibility of inflation.

William Galston, former domestic policy advisor to Bill Clinton, is not dismissive when it comes to inflation concerns. Having lived through the inflation of the late 1970s and early 1980s, Galston knows that inflation can be beaten, but “the question is whether you’re willing to endure the pain,” he said.

Galston said that Biden must be more active in showing he’s working to fix inflation, recalling advice from Bill Clinton, who said, “you may not be able to fix the problem right away, but you have to be caught trying.”

According to The New York Times, White House spokesperson Emilie Simons said the president “is using every tool available to reduce prices.” Even so, economists believe there isn’t much Biden can do at this point to stop inflation.

On Feb. 10, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for the 12 months ending with January 2022. The data showed a 7.5% annual increase, which is the largest increase in 40 years, since 1982.

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